经济基本面依然存在一些不可回避的挑战。首先,中国经济正在经历重大转型。前期以牺牲资源、环境和劳动力长期竞争力的粗放式发展模式正在同时遭遇资源、环境和劳动力瓶颈。通货膨胀、贫富分化和环境污染已经构成了对于原有增长模式的最大制约条件。另一方面,依托于精细化管理、技术进步、内需和服务行业的良性产业结构还没有达到。因此我们判断产业转型还需要更长的时期以及更多的政策配套来完成。国外的经济环境仍然扑朔迷离,中国国内经济有可能将受到更严峻的挑战,市场流动性状况不容乐观。宏观调控紧缩的基调不会改变,准备金率仍有上调的空间,加息的空间并不大。
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